Wednesday, 15 April 2015

MAT540 Week 2 Homework Chapter 12

MAT540 Week 2 Homework Chapter 12
1. A local real estate investor in Orlando is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Gasoline Availability Investment Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $-8,000 $15,000 $20,000 Restaurant 2,000 8,000 6,000 Theater 6,000 6,000 5,000 Determine the best investment, using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Minimax regret d. Hurwicz (α = 0.4) e. Equal likelihood

2. A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football game must decide whether to have the vendors sell sun visors or umbrellas. There is a 30% chance of rain, a 15% chance of overcast skies, and a 55% chance of sunshine, according to the weather forecast in College Junction, where the game is to be held. The manager estimates that the following profits will result from each decision, given each set of weather conditions: Weather Conditions Decision Rain Overcast Sunshine .30 .15 .55 Sun visors $-500 $-200 $1,500 Umbrellas 2,000 0 -900 a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss


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